Do you think you’re bad at something?
When I try something new, I sometimes feel like I’m on a rollercoaster of confidence. This is actually a really cool scientific phenomenon called the Dunning Kruger effect.
In 1999, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger published a study testing their self-titled effect by giving Cornell University undergraduates tests in logic, grammar, and humor.
After taking the test, the students were asked to estimate their raw scores and percentile rank relative to their peers.
Interestingly, the students who scored in the bottom quartile severely overestimated their performance. While their actual test results averaged in the 12th percentile, they estimated their abilities were in the 62nd percentile.
What does this mean?
Incompetence breeds overconfidence. Novices lack the very skill required to recognize their mistakes.
But it goes the other way as well.
Oftentimes those who are particularly skilled at something underestimate their capabilities.
Riding the confidence-coaster leads to stress and fatigue. Staying stable creates consistency and motivation. Knowing how confident to be is hard, but very valuable.